A little instinct. A world of possibility. Guess the odds. Go higher.
✦7 questions · about 3 minutes
New here? Here's the idea
Estimate a probability in 20 seconds. Each point lifts your lift one metre. Seven questions, up to 700 metres. Accuracy powers the lift; a rare event earns no more than a common one. Every answer is 0.1%–100%.
ESTIMATE LOCKED
Hold on, Ace!
Card #1Question 1 of 70 pts
🥚
LIVE
Time left20s
100% · Certain0.1% · 1 in 1,000
Input format
GOOD INSTINCTS. GRAND ASCENTS.+0 m
Each point carries you one metre higher.
The lift display is resting. Your height and score are saved.
Why these odds?
Sources & assumptions
1 point = 1 metre · The timer keeps running in menus.
Card #1
0 / 700
More options
Review your seven guesses
Your field notes
Settings
Music
The Velvet Odds · warm keys, vibraphone and brushed jazz.
Sound effects
Soft card flicks, tactile chips and a little lift with every result.
Use ♪ at the top to mute everything. Your choices are saved.
Fewer effects
Pause the world and show still scenes. Turn off for continuous animation.
Animations play automatically. Your motion choice is saved for this game.
Colourblind mode
More separated colours for each score tier.
Quick reveal
A shorter ascent with the same earned height.
Haptics
Buzz on a bullseye, where your phone supports it.
Unlimited
$7.99AUD, one-time
Play as many rounds as you like
Random questions from the full deck
Works on any device with your unlock code
Today's card stays free for everyone.
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Unlocked
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Stats
How to play
Each question is something that might happen, like cracking a double-yolk egg. Use the slider, type the odds as "1 in N", or choose Percentage and type the chance. For example, 10% is the same as 1 in 10. Then lock it in. Every answer is between 0.1% and 100% (1 in 1,000 to 1 in 1). Your guess format is remembered for next time.
You get 20 seconds. The clock keeps running if you leave the page, so there's no time to look it up. If time runs out you score nothing for that question.
Today's card is shared for each local calendar date and changes at your local midnight. An unfinished card keeps its original date and deadline, even after midnight. Reloading, Home and menus never pause a live question. Practice, archive and collections have their own records and do not extend your daily streak.
Practice draws from 200 relatable questions about everyday surprises, people, pets, home, travel and familiar games. Real-world targets are approximations under stated assumptions. Open “Sources & assumptions” after a reveal. No real-money stakes or community rankings.
Earn up to 100 points for how close your estimate is. We compare the bigger chance with the smaller one: guessing 10% or 40% when the answer is 20% is equally far away (2×), earning 50 points. This makes the same relative accuracy worth the same points for rare and common events.
A bullseye within a factor of 1.05 earns 100 points, allowing a little room for rounded estimates. Beyond that, points fall smoothly as your guess gets further away. There are no speed or rarity bonuses. Each point raises your lift one metre; seven bullseyes reach 700 metres.
Bullseye · within 1.05×100 pts
1.25× away · Sharp93 pts
1.5× away · Close79 pts
2× away · Same ballpark50 pts
3× away18 pts
5× away2 pts
10× away, or no guess0 pts
These are examples along the curve; points are rounded to the nearest whole number. Earlier cards and older challenge links keep their original scoring rules and saved results, including replays of a saved archive or collection card.
The archive
Revisit a seven-question daily card. Archive scores stay separate from your daily streak. The pavilion opened 8 October 2026.
Choose a corner
Curated seven-question cards, with no repeats within a collection. Each corner has its own field notes and best scores.
Little keepsakes
Earned once, yours to keep. Missing a day never takes a keepsake away.
A shared curiosity
Make a link, then send it yourself. Anyone with the link gets the same seven questions. It contains a seed, never the answers, and doesn't affect daily stats.
Private accounts and synced friends are not connected in this preview. Link comparisons are optional, self-reported scores, visible only after you complete the challenge.
There is no community ranking data.
Keep your light
Your game history and preferences live in this browser. Export a file to move completed progress yourself. This is not automatic cloud sync. Imports merge valid results and preserve earned items; they never replace your payment unlock.
Accounts: not connected. An authentication provider and deployed data service are required for cloud history and private friends. No account details or game results are sent by this preview.
Exports omit unlock signatures, credentials and device preferences. No advertising trackers or contact access. Sharing only happens when you choose a share/copy action. The probability pool and scores are client-side and are not competition-verified.
A warm-up toss
Imagine a fair coin. What's the chance of heads? This untimed example never uses your daily attempt.
Your result
Automatic copying isn't available here. Select this text and copy it.