The world is full of surprises. How likely is that, really?
✦7 questions · about 3 minutes
New here? Here's the idea
Estimate a probability in 20 seconds. Closer guesses earn more light. Seven questions, up to 700 points. Every answer is 0.1%–100%.
Card #10 pts
🥚
LIVE
Time left20s
100% · Certain0.1% · 1 in 1,000
Why these odds? Sources & assumptions
Your accuracy powers the Chance Machine. The timer keeps running in menus.
Card #1
0 / 700
Your field notes
Settings
Music
A gentle, playful groove while you play.
Sound effects
Musical dial clicks, reveals and little celebrations.
Use ♪ at the top to mute everything. Your choices are saved.
Fewer effects
Pause the world and show still scenes. Turn off for continuous animation.
Animations play automatically. Your motion choice is saved for this game.
Colourblind mode
More separated colours for each score tier.
Quick reveal
Shorter needle sweep after you lock in.
Haptics
Buzz on a bullseye, where your phone supports it.
Unlimited
$7.99AUD, one-time
Play as many rounds as you like
Random questions from the full deck
Works on any device with your unlock code
Today's card stays free for everyone.
Payments aren't set up yet, so Unlimited is free in this preview.
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Unlocked
This is your unlock code. Save it somewhere, then paste it on any other device or browser to unlock Unlimited there too.
Stats
How to play
Each question is something that might happen, like cracking a double-yolk egg. Use the slider, type the odds as "1 in N", or choose Percentage and type the chance. For example, 10% is the same as 1 in 10. Then lock it in. Every answer is between 0.1% and 100% (1 in 1,000 to 1 in 1). Your guess format is remembered for next time.
You get 20 seconds. The clock keeps running if you leave the page, so there's no time to look it up. If time runs out you score nothing for that question.
Today's card is shared for each local calendar date and changes at your local midnight. An unfinished card keeps its original date and deadline, even after midnight. Reloading, Home and menus never pause a live question. Practice, archive and collections have their own records and do not extend your daily streak.
Practice is replayable from 116 authored events: 90 real-world estimates and 26 maths questions. Real-world targets are approximations under stated assumptions. Open “Sources & assumptions” after a reveal. No real-money stakes or community rankings.
Scoring uses multiplicative distance: within a factor of 1.25 earns 100; otherwise 100 × (1 − |log₁₀(guess/answer)| / 2), rounded and clamped at zero. Reaction boundaries use the actual distance, not rounded points.
Bullseye, within ×1.25100
Sharp, over ×1.25 up to ×285 to 95
Close, within ×565 to 84
Same ballpark, within ×1050 to 64
Off by a lot, within ×1000 to 49
Way off, or no guess0
The archive
Revisit a seven-question daily card. Archive scores stay separate from your daily streak. The pavilion opened 8 October 2026.
Choose a corner
Curated seven-question cards, with no repeats within a collection. Each corner has its own field notes and best scores.
Little keepsakes
Earned once, yours to keep. Missing a day never takes a keepsake away.
A shared curiosity
Make a link, then send it yourself. Anyone with the link gets the same seven questions. It contains a seed, never the answers, and doesn't affect daily stats.
Private accounts and synced friends are not connected in this preview. Link comparisons are optional, self-reported scores, visible only after you complete the challenge.
There is no community ranking data.
Keep your light
Your game history and preferences live in this browser. Export a file to move completed progress yourself. This is not automatic cloud sync. Imports merge valid results and preserve earned items; they never replace your payment unlock.
Accounts: not connected. An authentication provider and deployed data service are required for cloud history and private friends. No account details or game results are sent by this preview.
Exports omit unlock signatures, credentials and device preferences. No advertising trackers or contact access. Sharing only happens when you choose a share/copy action. The probability pool and scores are client-side and are not competition-verified.
A warm-up toss
Imagine a fair coin. What's the chance of heads? This untimed example never uses your daily attempt.
Your result
Automatic copying isn't available here. Select this text and copy it.